ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 241945 SPC MCD 241945 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242215- Mesoscale Discussion 1076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 241945Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely this afternoon for much of this area. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a capped cumulus field across east-central KS. A few storms have recently developed over eastern KS on the north side of a modifying outflow boundary draped from southeast KS arcing northwest into northeast KS. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s across northeast KS, whereas persistent cloud cover over west-central MO in wake of an earlier MCS, has limited heating with temperatures only in the mid-upper 70s. The Topeka, KS 2pm raob shows a supercell wind profile with a capped, warm/moist boundary layer. Comparing the observed Topeka raob versus the 1-hr 18z run of the RAP valid at 19z, showed a slightly warmer and drier boundary layer (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio vs. 18.6 g/kg). Using an internal dynamics method (Bunkers) motion estimate, around 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH was noted both in the observed raob and the Topeka 88D VAD data. Current forecast thinking is for convective initiation to prefer the synoptic wind shift over southern NE late this afternoon. Isolated storms could develop farther south over northeast KS but uncertainty is high for this scenario. Eventually scattered thunderstorms will probably develop over the lower MO Valley during the evening. A supercell threat with associated hazards will probably transition to an high-precipitation supercell and later a squall line/bowing segment evolution. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40539675 40249734 39729743 38969632 38789560 38949500 39329489 40349590 40539675 NNNN