ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241911 
SPC MCD 241911 
MTZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Montana into west-central
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241911Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has destabilized in a region
extending from near Glacier National Park southeastward to near
Great Falls. A few stronger updrafts have started to show more
lightning within the past 30 minutes. Expect storm coverage to
increase as the compact mid-level shortwave trough drops south out
of Canada. In addition, as the boundary layer continues to warm,
expect MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg. The KTFX VWP shows
around 30 knots of effective shear. This shear combined with the
weak to moderate instability, should be sufficient for organized
updrafts, with some weak supercells possible. Isolated severe hail
and a severe wind gust or two will be possible. Relatively weak
instability, less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 6km, and
limited coverage of strong to severe storms will likely preclude the
need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   49141390 49091470 48161418 46921251 46811194 46771173
            47001112 47651099 49051212 49031281 49141390 

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