ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220017 
SPC MCD 220017 
MSZ000-LAZ000-220215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana and central to southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220017Z - 220215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving across the lower
Mississippi River Valley may produce sporadic wind damage, but the
overall severe threat will remain low enough to preclude the need
for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has revealed a gradually
organizing line from western/central LA into western MS along and
ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Although GOES IR imagery
shows a few stronger updrafts within the line, no wind damage or
strong wind reports have been noted thus far. However, the line is
moving into a corridor of higher low-level theta-e air and better
instability (upwards of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), which may support some
intensification in the next 1-2 hours prior to the onset of gradual
boundary layer stabilization due to the loss of daytime heating.
Generally weak deep-layer shear is noted over the region, and a
slightly stronger line-normal component to the mid/upper-level flow
is allowing the LA segment of the line to propagate to the southeast
faster than the MS segment. This section may present a better wind
threat in the near term, though the axis of instability ahead of
this section is rather narrow. Overall, the low probability for a
substantial severe threat and limited spatial extent of the threat
preclude a watch.

..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31299298 31879246 32399205 32719102 33129024 33318967
            32968905 32508906 31888938 31309020 30979081 30939166
            30979233 31109289 31299298 

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