ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192200 
SPC MCD 192200 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and
Northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

Valid 192200Z - 192330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized wind threat is developing this
afternoon/evening across northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
be needed downstream of WW286.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and
northeastern Colorado are rapidly growing upscale and surging
east-southeastward/eastward.  Given the favorable environment
downstream, characterized by steep lapse rates, over 2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, continued upscale
growth and organization is expected.  In addition, the southerly
low-level jet is expected to increase this evening across central
Kansas, providing additional support for convective maintenance and
organization.  All factors are supportive of the development of a
severe-wind-producing MCS, including potential for significant
severe winds, over the next several hours.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39910363 40420368 40820348 41340294 41680270 41440154
            41100057 40969964 40529908 39839885 39389923 38999999
            38850164 38900310 39120374 39910363 

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