ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190710 
SPC MCD 190710 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-190915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Iowa...Far Northeast Missouri...Central
Illinois...South-central Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...283...

Valid 190710Z - 190915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282, 283
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley for
several more hours as a linear MCS organizes. Weather watch issuance
may be needed downstream across south-central Indiana late tonight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a east-to-west line of
strong to severe thunderstorms from southeast Iowa into
north-central Illinois. This convection is located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front. The RAP is analyzing a relatively tight
gradient of moderate instability from southeast Iowa
east-southeastward into central Illinois, where MLCAPE is estimated
at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Regional WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor have
0-6km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting an organized severe
threat will continue across the region late tonight. High-resolution
models suggest that the line will gradually obtain a
northeast-southwest orientation, which will promote the development
of a cold pool. The development of the cold pool should coincide
with the organization of a linear MCS, which is forecast to move
east-southeastward across central Illinois and south-central Indiana
toward daybreak. Wind-damage will be possible along the leading edge
of this organized line segment.

..Broyles.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38548600 39228871 40069156 40539274 41039276 41289193
            40868902 39648561 38548600 

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