ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 182334 
SPC MCD 182334 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming...Northeast Colorado...and the
western Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182334Z - 190100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across far eastern Wyoming and
northeastern Colorado appears likely over the next 1 to 2 hours. A
few severe storms, including a supercell or two, may evolve and pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts and or severe hail into this evening.
Severe trends will be monitored but currently, a weather watch is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave trough, late
afternoon visible imagery showed towering cumulus gradually becoming
more agitated in the weak upslope flow regime across southern
Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Strong heating, with surface
temps in the mid to upper 80s along with dewpoints in the upper 40s
to low 50s are contributing to moderate buoyancy of 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Remaining MLCINH appears negligible and should continue to
be eroded by weak background ascent from the approaching trough and
upslope flow across the front range. Convective initiation appears
likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. Deep-layer shear profiles around 35
to 45 kts will support a few organized updrafts with some potential
for a supercell or two. The degree of buoyancy and steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will support a hail and wind threat with
any strong storms as they move to the east/southeast into the
western Nebraska Panhandle tonight. Storm coverage is forecast to
remain isolated given weak overall forcing. The uncertainty in storm
coverage and resulting severe potential suggests a weather watch is
likely unnecessary, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41250522 41890520 42340476 42490424 42350378 41980351
            41380351 40660356 40210361 39920391 39730443 39670485
            39920514 40880527 41250522 

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