ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 151838 SPC MCD 151838 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-152045- Mesoscale Discussion 0979 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Areas affected...Portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151838Z - 152045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe storms are possible in portions of southern/central New England. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with marginally severe hail more isolated. No WW is expected this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and NLDN lightning trends indicate convection is deepening within the Connecticut River Valley. Surface temperatures from western Maine into eastern Massachusetts have risen into the mid 70s F with dewpoints holding in the upper 50s to low 60s F. RAP-based objective mesoanalysis suggests 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE currently. Given RAP soundings are warmer at upper levels than regional 12Z RAOBs and surface temperatures and dewpoints are higher than forecast, it seems likely that MLCAPE will be skewed toward the higher end of the objectively analyzed range and that effective shear may be a touch higher given slightly deeper convection. The greatest storm coverage will likely occur in New Hampshire and western Maine where convergence is greatest within the surface trough. Strong heating and 35-40 kts of mid-level flow evident on the KBOX VWP will promote strong/damaging wind gusts. It is cold enough aloft that marginally severe hail could occur with any more organized/discrete storms. Farther south towards the Boston Metro, convergence in the surface trough is weaker and storm coverage is a bit more questionable. The primary forcing for convection will likely be the Atlantic sea breezes to the south and east. Shear is slightly greater in southern New England. Isolated storms would be similarly capable of damaging winds with marginally greater hail threat given the improved shear. The marginal environment will not likely support more than isolated severe coverage. No WW is expected. ..Wendt/Grams.. 06/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 43477257 44667197 45347101 45217030 43727070 42777083 41917070 41477132 41497192 41987266 42667267 43477257 NNNN