ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 132331 SPC MCD 132331 OKZ000-TXZ000-140130- Mesoscale Discussion 0961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Areas affected...West-central to southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132331Z - 140130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue to develop along outflow boundaries through the late evening hours. This activity may show periods of intensification that will pose a hail/damaging wind threat. Due to low confidence in the coverage and duration of the risk, a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of a remnant MCV that has lingered across southwest OK, as well as along residual outflow boundaries and a weak confluence axis draped from south-central to northwest OK. Although deep-layer flow is generally weak over the region, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE outside of existing cold pools. Little to no inhibition will continue to allow new convective development, and recent activity has shown pulse-like behavior with periods of strong cloud-top cooling per GOES IR imagery. This suggests that any cell could pose at least a brief damaging wind/hail risk. The onset of diurnal cooling after 01 UTC may limit the propensity for new convection, but recent hi-res guidance suggests new storms may continue to develop along a southward-moving outflow boundary and in the vicinity of the MCV as it continues to move into northwest TX during the overnight hours. Confidence in this scenario is low given how poorly guidance has handled the evolution of the MCV thus far, but the potential for at least an isolated severe threat is noted. ..Moore/Dial.. 06/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34449951 34799903 35259869 35719875 36229866 36379829 36029780 35399754 34909731 34419693 34079692 33439715 32919743 32729784 32599873 32799967 33299999 33940001 34449951 NNNN