ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 112239 SPC MCD 112239 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120045- Mesoscale Discussion 0928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...260... Valid 112239Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, 260 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will likely continue for southeast Kansas and into far southwest Missouri over the next few hours. The severe threat is more conditional across south-central Kansas and over west-central Missouri. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KEAX over the past hour has shown an initially organized line of storms become increasingly broken and outflow dominant, likely the result of weakening deep-layer shear with southeastward extent. The cluster of storms across west-central MO are being largely outpaced by their outflow. This introduces some uncertainty into the severe potential in the near term for portions of southwest MO. Additional, more balanced, convective development along parts of the outflow is possible over the next couple of hours and may continue to support a severe wind threat. Further west into KS, a cluster of storms over the Franklin/Anderson counties area has maintained a balanced outflow and continues to produce severe wind. New convective elements are noted on the western fringe of this cluster, likely due to lift along the western extent of an outflow boundary. This suggests that the environment across southeast KS remains sufficiently uncapped (at least locally) to support mature convection. New updrafts originating on the southwestern flank of this cluster will quickly amalgamate within the line and propagate to the south/southeast within the mean flow regime (and along a diffuse low-level instability axis). As such, the wind threat should continue for southeast KS. To the west over south-central KS, agitated cumulus is noted along the surface trough/cold front, but no serious attempts at convective initiation have occurred. While the environment remains conditionally favorable for a severe threat, the potential for mature convection remains uncertain. ..Moore.. 06/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38399656 38789630 38959530 38979459 38709324 37979282 37219310 36999360 36959427 36999540 37209590 37729647 38399656 NNNN