ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111855 
SPC MCD 111855 
MOZ000-KSZ000-112030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Areas affected...for parts of northeast and eastern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

Valid 111855Z - 112030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts (60-85 mph) is highest over this
corridor thru 4pm.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a severe cluster of storms over
northeast KS moving to the southeast at 25 kt.  A Union Pacific
observation site recently measured an 83 mph gust at 1:38pm.  The
airmass between Topeka and Kansas City continues to destabilize
early this afternoon.  Modifying the 11am Topeka, KS raob shows for
current surface conditions yields 4000 J/kg SBCAPE for lower 70s
dewpoints.  Farther south, greater buoyancy is expected over
southeast KS where a reservoir of mid-upper 70s dewpoints resides. 
The Topeka WSR-88D VAD shows southeasterly surface winds veering to
20 kt southwesterly at 3 km AGL to 35 kt west-southwesterly at 6 km
AGL.  As a result, the wind profile coupled with the buoyancy is
very supportive for organized severe storms this afternoon.  Early
afternoon trends with the thunderstorm complex show continued
preference for deep/intense updrafts (50 kft echo tops) on the
west-southwest flank of the complex.  With the lowest 100 mb mean
mixing ratios sampled/inferred by the Topeka raob/surface
observations, intense downbursts will probably become more common
this afternoon as this complex moves south.  Peak wind gusts ranging
from 60-85 mph are expected through 4pm.

..Smith.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39299535 39569496 39109455 38689453 38359485 38359545
            38599585 39169585 39299535 

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