ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111528 
SPC MCD 111528 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-111730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Areas affected...far southeast NE...far northeast KS...far northwest
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

Valid 111528Z - 111730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may gradually increase through
12pm and focus mainly across parts of far southeast NE into
northeast KS.  A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely need to
be issued during the midday hours for eastern KS and possibly the
western tier or two of counties in MO.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 1020am shows a southward surge to the
MCS over the lower MO Valley, with it expected to push south of a
flanking band of storms on the southwest edge of the complex during
the next 30-60 minutes.  Once this occurs, expecting the limiting
effects of the flanking band to cease (i.e., competing cold pool
development) and the potential for more storm-scale organization to
proceed as it moves south into the moisture/CAPE axis.  Surface
temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as of 10am with dewpoints
in the mid 70s.  Additional heating south of the thunderstorms will
contribute to additional buoyancy with the 00z HRW-ARW/NSSL forecast
soundings showing 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE by noon.  It appears the 00z
model runs of the HRW-ARW and the HRW-NSSL may be best depicting the
placement and speed of the MCS compared to other 00z and 12z HREF
membership and the latest HRRR runs.  The MCS is forecast to reach
the southern edge of the northeastern-most counties of KS by
1200-1230pm.  A coinciding uptick in severe potential will accompany
the squall line.  Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts 60-70
mph are possible.

..Smith.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39369720 40489683 40759566 40259509 39379507 39369720 

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