ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081617 
SPC MCD 081617 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-081815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Areas affected...northern LA...far southern AR...west-central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081617Z - 081815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging surface gusts will probably increase
this afternoon coincident with a small-scale bowing complex forecast
to move from west to east across northern LA.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 11am CDT shows temperatures have
warmed into the mid 80s deg F with mid 70s dewpoints across northern
LA to the south of a stationary west to east oriented outflow
boundary over southeast AR into northern MS.  The Shreveport, LA 88D
VAD is showing generally 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 1-4 km
AGL layer.  Model guidance maintains a ribbon of 30-kt southwesterly
850 mb flow across northern LA this afternoon.  Given the very
unstable airmass (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) forecast by models this
afternoon, it seems plausible a focused corridor for wind damage
potential will evolve as the east TX cluster moves east this
afternoon.

..Smith/Guyer.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32179103 31589372 32369403 32899381 33359321 33539113
            33169058 32679061 32239102 32179103 

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