ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080611 
SPC MCD 080611 
TXZ000-080815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into Big Country of
western north Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

Valid 080611Z - 080815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts remain possible with a southeastward
advancing cluster of thunderstorms into the 3-5 AM time frame. 
There remains potential for some re-intensification of storms,
particularly with activity approaching the Abilene area during the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...There has been some recent weakening (evident in MRMS
CAPPI data) of the more intense convection on the leading edge of
the southeastward propagating cold pool (still including 2-4+ mb 2
hourly surface pressure rises in 05Z surface obs).  However, based
on current 30 kt forward propagation, 10-20 south to southeasterly
ambient near surface winds are contributing to strong inflow of
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content characterized by
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.  This extends along a corridor where
stronger daytime differential surface heating took place, near the
edge of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
across the higher plains, as far east-southeast as the Mineral Wells
and Stephenville areas.  Although mid-level inhibition may be
increasing, associated with continued gradual boundary-layer
cooling, there still appears lingering potential for renewed storm
intensification into the 08-10Z time frame.  As the modest southerly
low-level over the Texas South Plains gradually veers, this may
become focused near/above the southern flank of the cold pool and
approach the Abilene vicinity.

..Kerr.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34040010 33799925 32779830 32309956 32930117 33480111
            33660044 34040010 

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