ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 071219 SPC MCD 071219 TXZ000-071415- Mesoscale Discussion 0866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021 Areas affected...Parts of north central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241... Valid 071219Z - 071415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241 continues. SUMMARY...While the severe weather risk has diminished in the near term, potential exists for substantive renewed intensification and organization, which may lead to increasing risk for severe hail and strong surface gusts near or just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex by 9-11 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Strongest new thunderstorm development has become focused on the southern/southwestern flank of conglomerate convective outflow. This is where large-scale ascent is supported by weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, along the northeastern periphery of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. This is also beneath modest to weak westerly to northwesterly flow, in the wake of weak large-scale mid-level troughing slowly shifting into the Mississippi Valley. The remnant nocturnal low-level jet probably contributed to enhancement of this lift, but this forcing is in the process of weakening. Still, with a continued slow southward suppression of the elevated mixed-layer air across north central Texas, coupled with a gradual warming of the seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, there appears potential for substantive thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through 14-16Z. Intersecting outflow surges from one remnant cluster of storms now northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and the newer cluster to the west, may provide one potential focus for intensifying and increasingly organized convection near or just south of Fort Worth. Given the environment, this gradually may be accompanied by strengthening rear inflow/downdrafts and increasing potential for strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 32599858 32839817 32969782 33039748 33019712 32479679 31669869 32119951 32549923 32599858 NNNN