ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070149 
SPC MCD 070149 
TXZ000-070345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

Areas affected...TX Panhandle...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 070149Z - 070345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development expected soon across the TX
Panhandle. Upscale growth into a convective line is possible, and
convective trends will be monitored closely for potential watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from AMA and LUB shows two
well-defined boundaries. The eastern boundary is likely associated
with low-level moisture retreating back westward across the Caprock
while the western boundary is eastward-progressing outflow
associated with the storms across the southern High Plains. This
storm outflow is relatively strong, with both CVN and CVS both
measuring 38 kt as as it moved through. Air mass over the region is
moderately unstable and only weakly capped. 00Z AMA sounding sampled
-54 J/kg of MLCIN, with mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
suggesting similar values south into the TX South Plains. Given
these thermodynamic conditions, thunderstorm development appears
likely as the two boundaries collide. Evolution of these storms
after they develop is uncertain, but one potential scenario forecast
by recent HRRR runs is for the development of an organized,
forward-propagating convective line. Given this potential and
attendant severe threat, convective trends will be monitored closely
over the next few hours.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33840280 34970271 35640256 36010192 35530094 32820097
            32640261 33840280 

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