ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061456 
SPC MCD 061456 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

Areas affected...southern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and
southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061456Z - 061730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for short-lived, low-end tornadoes is evident
across a broad portion of the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast area.  WW is not anticipated in the short term, but the area
is being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations reveal a very moist
low-level airmass across the central Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi
Valley area, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s inland, to the
upper 70s in some coastal areas.  The moist airmass is contributing
to 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across the area -- which
combined with broad ascent within the warm conveyor east of the
upper low now centered over the Arklatex region is resulting in
widespread shower/thunderstorm development.

As daytime heating allows gradual additional destabilization to
occur, convective coverage will likely expand, along with
occasional/local enhancement of updrafts.  While deep-layer flow
remains somewhat muted, ample veering/increasing of the flow field
in the lowest couple of km will continue to support some updraft
rotation.  Correspondingly, occasional/largely brief tornadic
spin-ups are expected, which -- dependent upon convective evolution
-- could eventually require WW consideration.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29669331 30379269 31209150 31669021 31838871 31638760
            30888758 28838883 28429081 29119319 29669331 

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