ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022147 
SPC MCD 022147 
NCZ000-SCZ000-022315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Areas affected...parts of southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022147Z - 022315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado remains possible with any of the stronger
storms with more persistent low-level rotation. The tornado threat
is expected to be too sparse and localized to warrant a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, exhibiting occasional transient
supercell structure, have been showing signs of stronger, more
persistent low-level rotation over the past hour or so, as shown by
MRMS mosaic radar imagery. A tornado was reported with a transient
supercell in Duplin County, and KLTX high-resolution radar data is
also showing weak low-level mesocyclone development with storms
entering Bladen and Columbus counties. While recent KMHX and KLTX
VWPs suggest that low-level shear is weak overall, these
semi-discrete storms are traversing a diffuse baroclinic zone, where
locally enhanced effective SRH and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (with 150 J/kg
0-3 km CAPE) is supporting updraft organization and occasional
low-level rotation. As such, a brief tornado or two remains possible
for a few more hours, before convective overturning or
boundary-layer cooling serve to diminish any remaining severe
threat. The very isolated, brief nature of the tornado threat
precludes a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34357913 34737895 34927875 35167807 35257745 35187701
            34857689 34597712 34347759 34177801 34077852 34037900
            34357913 

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