ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020024 
SPC MCD 020024 
TXZ000-NMZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020024Z - 020200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail may briefly accompany one
of the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Storms have organized into small, transient supercells
over the past couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic MESH data suggesting
that a couple of the storms may have briefly produced marginally
severe hail. These storms are propagating southward into an
environment with slightly higher mid-level lapse rates (exceeding
7.5 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings), where up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE is present based on 00Z mesoanalysis. Diurnally driven
buoyancy overlapping 40 kts of effective bulk shear will continue to
support storm organization and the chance for a marginally severe
hailstone or damaging gust over the next few hours, as also
suggested by Warn-On-Forecast ensemble output. However, storms are
expected to gradually weaken after sunset when the boundary-layer
decouples. The isolated, brief nature of the severe threat precludes
a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32200136 32010243 32130281 32560313 33370319 33910307
            34210246 34200169 34050115 33860101 33400090 32830097
            32330121 32200136 

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