ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312317 
SPC MCD 312317 
NMZ000-TXZ000-010045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico and adjacent
southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

Valid 312317Z - 010045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.

SUMMARY...Further intensification of an evolving isolated supercell
still appears possible into the 6-8 PM MDT time frame, with a
tendency to move southeastward and remain close to the Guadalupe
Mountains.

DISCUSSION...Much of the Permian Basin has been stabilized by
persistent convection and the southwestward advancement of
conglomerate outflow into the higher terrain.  Any continuing
potential for severe storm development now seems confined to the
immediate vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains, where the
boundary-layer remains characterized by CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of generally weak, but strongly
sheared west-southwesterly ambient mean flow.  Isolated thunderstorm
development is ongoing to the south of Alamogordo, NM, and further
intensification into a better organized supercell still appears
possible, with a tendency to propagate southeastward near the higher
terrain through 00-02Z.

..Kerr.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33080513 31970452 31490438 31670557 32550596 33080513 

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