ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 311633 SPC MCD 311633 TXZ000-NMZ000-311800- Mesoscale Discussion 0823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311633Z - 311800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. Large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be the primary threat, however a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A watch will be needed in the near term. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across east-central New Mexico this morning continued to reinforce a westward moving convective outflow boundary draped across southeast New Mexico. This boundary will continue to move west this afternoon and is expected to serve as a focus for thunderstorms. Ahead of the outflow boundary, clear skies have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F and will continue to warm into the 80s F. This, coupled with surface dewpoints in the 50s F and steep mid-level-lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, will allow surface-based CAPE to exceed 2000-3000 J/km. Effective-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support the potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows this afternoon. Although low-level flow is relatively weak, the degree of instability and favorable veering wind profile may support a couple tornadoes, especially across west Texas where discrete cellular mode may persist longer. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon with initial development across southeast New Mexico in the next hour or so and more widespread convection developing in the 1-2 PM MDT time frame. A watch will likely be required in the near term. ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 29000357 30620416 31930518 33040591 33660650 34360677 34770634 34770538 34040303 33670161 33100101 31030064 29280102 29620147 29650223 28960288 29000357 NNNN