ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302237 
SPC MCD 302237 
TXZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 302237Z - 310000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase over the next few
hours as storms within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #225 move into
western Texas from eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging winds
are the main threats with these storms, though a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells, with 50+ dBZ
echoes exceeding 45 kft (per latest MRMS mosaic radar data) are
gradually progressing eastward towards the eastern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #225 in southeast New Mexico, and are poised to
moved into western Texas within the next couple of hours. MRMS
mosaic MESH suggests that severe hail (perhaps briefly reaching 2.0
inches in diameter) has been occurring with these storms, which are
progressing into a 7.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rate
environment, where 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts effective bulk shear
are present. As such, the potential for large hail and perhaps a
brief tornado is expected to continue with these storms while they
remain at least partially discrete. However, latest high-resolution
guidance suggests that upscale growth into linear segments is likely
given cold pool mergers in a relatively weak low-level shear
environment. Damaging gusts would then become the main concern with
storms that become more linear with time.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32930298 33890303 34590292 34770249 34790138 34760057
            34500020 34100012 33570016 33010057 32790131 32790196
            32930298 

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