ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292330 
SPC MCD 292330 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...Far southeast CO...Far northeast NM...Western OK
Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

Valid 292330Z - 300100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief
tornado continues across southeast Colorado this evening. Some
severe threat may spread out of WW 223 into far northeast NM and the
western TX/OK Panhandles, with new severe thunderstorm watch
issuance possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across far southeast CO will
continue to pose a severe threat into early evening, as moderate
instability is maintained near and downstream of the cluster.
Maintenance and potential upscale growth of this cluster is possible
with time, as a southeasterly low-level jet increases tonight. With
strong MLCINH noted to the east, the cluster would likely take on a
more southeasterly motion if it survives, spreading a severe threat
into portions of far northeast NM and the western OK/northwest TX
Panhandles. Large hail will probably remain the most likely hazard
in the short term, associated with stronger multicells or transient
supercells within the cluster. A somewhat greater severe wind risk
may evolve with time, especially if more substantial upscale growth
can occur. 

Downstream watch issuance into portions of the western TX/OK
Panhandles and possibly far northeast NM is possible if trends
support a substantial severe threat into these areas later this
evening.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37280388 37740239 37180217 35840181 35750319 36120368
            36530388 37040418 37330383 37280388 

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