ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291509 
SPC MCD 291509 
TXZ000-291645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291509Z - 291645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm intensity is possible over the
next few hours with a risk for isolated strong/severe wind gusts.  A
watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest KBRO reflectivity trends show thunderstorms
associated with a long-lived MCS continuing to move southeast, with
some intermittent increase in updraft intensity.  Despite
substantial MCS-associated high-level clouds extending downstream,
the presence of mid-upper 70s dew points has contributed to strong
surface-based instability.  Further, 25-30 kts of mid-level flow
will provide a favorable environment for continued
re-intensification of individual storms and perhaps some increase in
organization of the convective complex, which would increase the
risk for more concentrated damaging wind potential as the system
approaches the coast.

A watch is not anticipated, however trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Bunting/Hart.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   25949718 25879746 26049774 26079816 26259866 26409907
            26579913 26979921 27179878 27279806 27279751 27279742
            26499720 25949718 

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