ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282318 
SPC MCD 282318 
MDZ000-VAZ000-290045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Areas affected...far eastern Virginia into southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282318Z - 290045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected to continue for a couple more
hours. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in convective intensity has been noted with
discrete storms traversing a warm front across far eastern Virginia,
with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 50 dBZ extending up to 25 kft
with some of the stronger cells. KDOX has also shown some transient
rotation associated with these storms as well. MLCAPE is roughly 500
J/kg on the warm side of the front. However, recent KDOX VWPs show
around 250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present, with RAP forecast soundings
suggesting that much of the SRH is within the effective inflow
layer. As such, a damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur before
boundary layer stabilization reduces the severe threat. Nonetheless,
the severe threat is expected to remain sparse enough to preclude a
WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37687685 38267712 38537700 38577629 38407545 38097527
            37667538 37557639 37687685 

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