ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280324 
SPC MCD 280324 
OKZ000-TXZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...Parts of northwestern into north central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

Valid 280324Z - 280500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.

SUMMARY...Some risk for hail and gusty winds may continue in
stronger storms spreading south of the Red River through at least
Midnight-2 AM CDT. However, severe weather potential, in general,
appears low enough that a new severe weather watch will not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Steep lapse rates, associated with remnants of the more
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer and warmer elevated
mixed-layer air, are still supporting large CAPE in the vicinity of
weak low pressure at the intersection of a southward advancing cold
front and conglomerate convective outflow boundary.  Given this
environment, it is possible that at least weak large-scale ascent,
aided by low-level convergence and warm advection focused to the
northeast of the low, could continue to support vigorous
thunderstorm development another several hours.  In the presence of
strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer, generally above the
leading edge of the southward advancing cooler air, some of this
activity might continue to pose some risk for severe hail and strong
surface gusts.  However, with the instability gradually waning, and
southerly low-level pre-frontal/cold pool flow remaining generally
weak, there is little to suggest a substantive increase in storm
intensities and severe weather potential beyond what is ongoing now,
as progresses south of the Red River.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33879884 33909748 32669760 32519877 33330024 34119970
            33879884 

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