ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250443 
SPC MCD 250443 
TXZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250443Z - 250645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, locally severe gusts are possible across parts
of northwest Texas through about 0630Z.  A watch is not anticipated
due to limited coverage/duration.

DISCUSSION...The merger of several multicellular thunderstorm
clusters near and just above the Caprock, over the last 1-2 hours,
has led to a loosely organized, bowing, small MCS surging eastward
off the Caprock and onto the northern Low Rolling Plains of
northwest Texas.  As the merger was underway, a West Texas Mesonet
site in Crosby County recorded a 53-kt gust.   

Over the last hour, LUB/LDR radar velocities have indicated a
rear-inflow jet over portions of Motley, King, Cottle, and Dickens
Counties around a mile above ground level.  How much of this flow is
reaching the surface is uncertain, as other mesonet sites have
clocked subsevere gusts; however, localized winds near or briefly
exceeding severe limits may occur as the complex proceeds eastward
toward Wilbarger, Baylor and perhaps parts of adjacent counties,
before it substantially weakens.  Deep shear and ambient flow aloft
are weak, and the low-level jet will remain largely orthogonal to
the storm-motion vector.  However, with weak MLCINH still evident
based on modified model soundings (in a major 00Z RAOB data void),
cold-pool-driven forced ascent may sustain this activity for another
1-2 hours.

..Edwards.. 05/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33510070 33780019 34130006 34380027 34269965 33929902
            33479904 33349979 33510070 

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