ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 241757 SPC MCD 241757 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-242000- Mesoscale Discussion 0720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern WV...central/southern VA and north-central NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241757Z - 242000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and move southeast through early evening. A couple of storms may produce strong/possibly damaging wind gusts. A watch is not anticipated given the expected sparse coverage of the severe risk, however trends in storm coverage will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A west/southwest moving back door cold front extended from a weak surface low over southwest PA southward across central/southern VA and eastern NC at 17z. Despite mid/high-level clouds, temperatures to the west of the front have warmed into the 80s over southern VA/northern NC. Although mid-level lapse rates are poor, the presence of surface dew points generally in the mid 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early/mid afternoon time frame over the higher terrain, with storms subsequently moving southeast in the vicinity of the front. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the front, supporting some degree of storm organization. Steep low-level lapse rates and an appreciable sub-cloud temperature-dew point spread will result in a risk for strong/possibly damaging winds with a couple of stronger storms. The overall severe risk should remain isolated and a watch is not expected, however convective trends will be monitored. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36307799 35767842 35727915 36657959 37437971 38007965 38397958 38687948 38837910 38757872 38417835 37427807 36307799 NNNN