ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221856 
SPC MCD 221856 
TXZ000-NMZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Areas affected...southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

Valid 221856Z - 222130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 20Z near a dryline, with
large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible.

DISCUSSION...Substantial easterly low-level flow is maintaining
surface dewpoints along and east of a dryline over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth counties as strong heating continues. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
is expected by late afternoon, beneath moderate southwesterlies
aloft. The result will be a hodographs favoring slow-moving
supercells which are expected to form after 20Z.

Steep low and midlevel lapse rates as well as strong easterly storm
relative inflow with increasing SRH later today will support a
tornado as well as damaging hail threat. Storms may eventually
produce congealing outflows with damaging gusts. Capping will occur
quickly east of the dryline by early evening as heating ceases, with
little threat expected east of 103 W.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30940553 32660554 33060523 33240468 33300373 33010325
            32510308 31910308 31220316 30610347 30320397 30470487
            30660507 30940553 

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