ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210205 
SPC MCD 210205 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

Areas affected...Central Iowa into Southeast Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210205Z - 210400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-end threat for a brief tornado exists in association
with strong low-level shear and MCV moving through central Iowa. The
threat will be limited by a very poor thermodynamic environment. No
WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...The KDMX VAD has shown an increase in low-level winds
over the past few hours. 0-1 km shear is now near 40 kts as the core
of the low-level jet has intensified within the region. With an MCV
moving through the area, a storm or two will be possible into the
overnight. Given the wind profiles depicted by the VAD, low-level
rotation and a brief tornado could occur if a storm were to
intensify. Thermodynamics in this very moist, tropical-like
environment are quite poor, however, and will limit the overall
threat. No WW is expected.

..Wendt/Dial.. 05/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41819451 42889417 43799330 44029194 43779135 43299118
            42029219 41099319 41019403 41339449 41819451 

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