ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180228 
SPC MCD 180228 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 180228Z - 180430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail potential will continue across
the TX and OK Panhandles for the next 1-2 hours, but a gradual
weakening trend is expected across WW 181.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to propagate east/northeast
across southeast CO into southwest KS and across the OK/TX
Panhandles. This line has produced a handful of measured severe wind
gusts in the past hour, and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends
show a few stronger updrafts capable of severe hail in the near
term. However, composite reflectivity and lightning trends over the
past hour have shown a gradual weakening of the line as it moves
across southeast CO where deep-layer shear and MLCAPE are
diminishing. While sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail remain
possible in the near term, this weakening trend should continue. 

Further to the south across the OK/TX Panhandles, instability and
deep-layer shear remain favorable for maintaining the evolving QLCS
for the next 1-2 hours. Increasing inhibition and waning instability
will likely lead to a gradual weakening trend as the line approaches
western OK, but severe wind and a few instances of severe hail
remain likely in the near term. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but a downstream watch is currently not anticipated.

..Moore.. 05/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37710400 38330403 38730305 38550185 37910098 36899986
            36179962 35359964 34899988 34730035 34770103 35150160
            36340241 37070309 37710400 

NNNN