ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 180023 SPC MCD 180023 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180230- Mesoscale Discussion 0659 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...the northern Panhandles...and southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181... Valid 180023Z - 180230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue for WW 181 for the next few hours. Storms will likely reach southwest Kansas by 03 UTC, and trends will be monitored for the need for a downstream watch. DISCUSSION...Prior discrete to semi-discrete convection across northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle continues to grow upscale with a cohesive outflow discernible in velocity data from regional radars. This activity is expected to continue to propagate to the north/northwest into southeast CO, the northern Panhandles, and potentially into southwest KS by around 03 UTC. Additionally, new convective development is noted ahead of this line, but it is unclear if this convection will pose a robust severe threat before merging with the approaching line. The environment ahead of this evolving line remains supportive for organized convection in the near term, though the onset of diurnal cooling may limit instability and overall storm intensity to some degree. The greatest severe risk will likely remain across the Panhandles region into the overnight hours where more persistent discrete storm modes are expected as well as a strengthening low-level jet that will help maintain a robust hail/wind (and perhaps a brief tornado) threat. A downstream watch into southwest Kansas is possible if the line can maintain intensity despite a gradual decrease in instability and boundary-layer decoupling. To the northwest, convection along the CO front range continues exhibit gradual consolidation with an outflow boundary slowly propagating eastward. This activity will continue to pose an isolated severe wind risk for the next 1-2 hours before boundary-layer decoupling occurs. ..Moore.. 05/18/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36770491 37510460 38380364 38560264 38190154 37820086 37060044 36180001 35500011 35260108 35180264 35360309 35890335 36360415 36770491 NNNN