ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172153 
SPC MCD 172153 
TXZ000-OKZ000-172330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

Valid 172153Z - 172330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
locally severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible into the evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, strong thunderstorms have developed along an
outflow boundary across portions of northwest TX. Relatively strong
heating on both sides of the boundary has largely removed MLCINH, so
continued intensification and development is expected into the early
evening. Moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg),
effective shear of 35-45 kt, and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger) with
the strongest cells. While low-level flow is currently weak, some
tornado risk may evolve with any supercell interacting with the
boundary, especially as the low-level jet begins to increase toward
evening. With generally steep low-level lapse rates across the area,
isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Some upscale
growth is possible this evening in conjunction with the intensifying
low-level jet, which would increase the threat of damaging wind with
time.

..Dean.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32089963 32080031 32080032 32080033 32080051 32080054
            32090067 32250066 32620066 32740066 32960066 34310052
            34750042 34750038 34750012 34750000 34469936 34419926
            34409926 34219895 34209895 32969895 32509910 32089963
            32089963 

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