ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171911 
SPC MCD 171911 
TXZ000-NMZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central NM...TX South Plains...TX
Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 171911Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated with the next hour
or two across far southeast NM/far southwestern TX Panhandle/western
Permian Basin. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible
and a Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over about 45
miles northwest of ROW. A dryline extends southeastward from this
low through much of southeast NM before arcing back more southward
across the TX Trans Pecos. Northward returning low-level moisture
also results in an effective warm front, which extends from the
surface low northeastward through De Baca County NM and then back
southeastward through the TX South Plains. Deepen cumulus has been
observed within the area between these two boundaries, with a few
orphan anvils recently noted. 

Expectation is for eventual convective initiation along the dryline
as it continues eastward/northeastward. Air mass across the region
has become moderately unstable, with mesoanalysis estimating 1000 to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place with little to no convective
inhibition. Effective deep layer shear is currently around 30 to 40
kt, with a gradual increase anticipated over the next few hours as
the shortwave trough moves through. 

Overall environment supports initial supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in
diameter) and tornadoes. Some upscale growth is anticipated over
time, which will result in a transition to strong wind gusts as the
primary severe threat.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   31470323 32660376 33620409 34150526 34690498 34940358
            34570160 32710115 31220165 31470323 

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