ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162211 
SPC MCD 162211 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-162345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...and far
Southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162211Z - 162345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of severe hail and gusty
outflow winds are possible this evening. WW issuance not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows clearing/destabilization
occurring and a broad/deepening cumulus field developing across much
of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas, with a few convective
cells developing north of WW 177 along a stationary boundary. The
environment in this region is characterized by moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), and
weak deep layer shear (20-25 kt effective shear), per the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. A few strong storms are possible this evening with
this activity, posing an isolated threat for severe hail and gusty
outflow winds. Given the weakly sheared environment, storms will
likely struggle to maintain organization and become somewhat
disorganized. Thus, although a few strong storms are possible, watch
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38220330 38650423 39930341 40320197 39840052 38890020
            38270088 38220330 

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