ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160041 
SPC MCD 160041 
NEZ000-WYZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and far Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160041Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/damaging wind threat possible, watch
issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows scattered convection
with fairly robust updrafts moving into south-central portions of
Wyoming. The ambient environment remains weakly unstable (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/kg) amid moderate deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
bulk shear). This activity may pose a risk for isolated severe hail
and damaging wind gusts for the next few hours. 

As this activity traverses eastward off the high terrain it will
encounter richer low-level moisture, where 50 F dew point
temperatures are currently analyzed across portions of southeast
Wyoming. Should storms hold together, some intensification of the
activity can be expected. Given the ambient shear profile, storms
may congeal into more a linear mode (as suggested by recent HRRR
runs), perhaps maintaining a damaging wind threat later this
evening.

..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   41070470 41060670 41680803 41800876 42540901 42890840
            43060629 42920461 42560408 42090349 41250329 41030370
            41070470 

NNNN