ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 152335 SPC MCD 152335 TXZ000-NMZ000-160100- Mesoscale Discussion 0626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West/Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 152335Z - 160100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts continues across WW 173. DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows a relatively long-lived supercell with a history of producing severe hail moving southeast through portions of Pecos county into Terrell county in the Big Bend region of southwest Texas. Other cells developing along high terrain in portions of far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico are beginning to enter western portions of WW 173. One of these cells produced a measured wind gust of 62 mph at the Culberson, TX, ASOS station. In the near term, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain the primary threat with the ongoing convective activity, particularly as storms continue moving eastward into improving thermodynamic conditions. Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE ranging from near 1000 J/kg in western portions of the watch area, to near 2000 J/kg along the eastern edge, amid effective shear values near 35 kt promoting multicell and transient supercell structures. Thus, the severe threat is expected to continue. To the east of WW 173, stabilizing outflow from previous convective activity is evident in visible satellite imagery, with near 100 J/kg of SBCIN analyzed in mesoanalysis. These observations suggest the storm entering Terrell county may have somewhat limited aerial extent of severe potential as it nears the southeastern edge of the watch area. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored closely. With time, storms farther west may congeal into more of a linear structure, and should this occur, the threat will transition to primarily damaging winds through the remainder of the evening. ..Karstens.. 05/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32330432 33260398 33590325 33170251 32840109 31350104 30210122 29580212 28990320 29320389 30740490 32330432 NNNN