ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142326 
SPC MCD 142326 
KSZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Areas affected...southwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 142326Z - 150130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) appear increasingly
likely over the next couple of hours across parts of southwest KS
(0030 to 0200 UTC).  Expecting the coverage and intensity of severe
gusts to maximize during this timeframe.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of discrete storms
aligned north to south along a dryline from extreme southeast CO
southward into the western counties of the TX Panhandle.  The storms
over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle are beginning to move into a
more moist environment as the activity pushes eastward.  Surface
analysis shows dewpoints near 50 deg F near the CO/KS border and
into the middle 50s one tier of counties farther east (i.e., Kearny,
Grant, Stevens counties).  As a result of both strong heating and
the aforementioned well mixed but adequate boundary layer moisture,
upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE is noted on modified RAP forecast
soundings (slightly more unstable than current SPC Mesoanalysis
fields).  The steep low-level lapse rates and the 9 deg C/km 700-500
mb lapse rates, will enable efficient downdrafts in the form of
strong to severe gusts.  Severe gusts ranging from 60-75 mph are
expected as the activity over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle
gradually moves into southwest KS during the next couple of hours.

..Smith.. 05/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38010197 38340165 38390115 38100083 37370070 37080088
            37000141 37110177 38010197 

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