ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 111712 SPC MCD 111712 GAZ000-FLZ000-111915- Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Areas affected...North Florida and south-central Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111712Z - 111915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by the mid to late afternoon hours. One or two severe storms are possible, but the threat will likely remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown scattered convective showers developing over northern FL and southern GA in the vicinity of a diffuse confluence axis. GOES IR imagery shows fairly warm cloud tops, indicating that deeper convection has not yet been achieved. However, surface temperatures are warming into the low 80s and will likely reach surface-based parcel convective temperatures by mid afternoon as warming continues into the mid/upper 80s. Modified morning soundings from north FL suggest MLCAPE is increasing upwards of 500 J/kg, and recent RAP analyses show a similar trend that will likely continue through the remainder of the day. Lift within the weak confluence axis may allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. While this region is on the periphery of stronger upper-level flow to the north, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear should support some storm organization and the potential for an isolated wind/hail threat. Mean deep-layer flow along the confluence axis will likely favor clusters of storms that may favor a wind threat over severe hail, but the overall threat is expected to be fairly isolated and a watch is not expected. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31068455 31458395 31588310 31648240 31638146 31418104 30628110 29998136 29598245 29598351 29758442 29948492 30518491 31068455 NNNN