ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092053 
SPC MCD 092053 
MSZ000-LAZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Southwest to southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092053Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms moving into southwest Mississippi
may be capable of isolated damaging winds, especially if an
organized cold pool can develop. However, the overall potential
remains low and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving into southwest MS has
a history of transient stronger updraft pulses within the cluster
over the past 30 minutes per GOES IR imagery. Although this cluster
is currently unorganized, reflectivity trends from KDGX suggest weak
cold pool propagation is occurring on the eastern periphery of the
cluster in line with the mean wind vector. The environment across
southern MS is generally supportive of organized convection with
nearly 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear
analyzed in recent RAP mesoanalysis. Additionally, the KDGX VWP
recently observed 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear, which is adequate
to support further cold pool organization. As such, a damaging wind
threat may evolve from this cluster as it moves into south-central
MS, though confidence is this scenario is low. Marginally severe
hail will also be possible in the near term with any stronger
updraft pulses, but given the unfavorable storm mode and weak
forcing for ascent, a persistent hail threat does not appear likely.
This potential may persist for the next few hours, but a watch is
not expected.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   31799160 32469119 32989062 33058986 32988893 32018912
            31598941 31569029 31579142 31799160 

NNNN