ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090846 
SPC MCD 090846 
MOZ000-ARZ000-091045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...southern Missouri/northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090846Z - 091045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong storms -- a few capable of hail and/or wind
gusts near severe levels -- will be possible across the Ozarks
region this morning.  However, low-end/isolated risk that is
expected to persist appears likely to remain too low to warrant new
WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a mature, arcing band of
thunderstorms moving southeastward across southwestern and central
Missouri at this time.  Meanwhile, isolated storms have developed
farther south, across northwestern Arkansas/southwestern Missouri,
in response to increasing low-level warm advection associated with a
veering low-level jet.

Amply steep lapse rates across the region are providing sufficient
-- though slightly elevated -- CAPE, on the order of 500 to 1500
J/kg.  This -- combined with moderate/very weakly veering flow in
the cloud-bearing layer -- is supporting a few stronger updrafts,
and will likely continue to do so as convection spreads across the
Ozarks.  However, with severe potential expected to remain rather
low-end and isolated, a WW is not currently anticipated.  We will
continue to monitor convective evolution across the area, for any
signs of increased severe risk.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35599418 36579347 37109373 37499419 38279308 38109231
            37389112 36869121 36179109 35889236 35599418 

NNNN