ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082059 
SPC MCD 082059 
KSZ000-COZ000-082300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082059Z - 082300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may produce sporadic damaging
winds across eastern Colorado through the early evening hours. This
threat should remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES IR trends from the Denver, CO
region show an uptick in convection over the past 30 minutes as a
passing cold front induces an upslope flow regime over the CO front
range. Despite the cold frontal passage, the air mass over the CO
Plains remains supportive for convection thanks to cold temperatures
aloft and nearly 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates that are allowing for
around 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Nearly 40 F dewpoint depressions across the
region are indicative of a dry, well-mixed boundary layer, and this
idea is supported by recent RAP forecast soundings. This low-level
thermodynamic profile is supportive of strong downdrafts, and 40-50
knots of effective bulk shear may support some cold pool
organization and a damaging wind threat with any larger clusters.
Convective coverage is somewhat uncertain since the primary forcing
mechanism will likely remain confined along the front range in the
upslope flow regime. Furthermore, the instability is not expected to
substantially improve given gradual cold advection and patchy cloud
cover, and a few discrete cells have recently shown only transient
intensification. The limited nature of this threat precludes the
need for a watch.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38020396 38480451 38850488 39500502 40280494 40610425
            40470349 39660295 39190250 38500199 37780202 37640218
            37620264 38020396 

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