ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 071800 SPC MCD 071800 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072000- Mesoscale Discussion 0556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021 Areas affected...Northern New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and the far western Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071800Z - 072000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...One or two strong to severe storms may develop within a region of developing thunderstorms over the next few hours. This threat should remain isolated and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway from northwest NM into far southeast CO amid strong diurnal heating and orographic ascent over the terrain of the southern Rockies. GOES IR imagery has shown steady cloud top cooling with an uptick in lightning noted as a few storms begin to intensify. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft and warm surface temperatures are supporting MUCAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg. RAP mesoanalysis also shows increasing surface-based instability as heating continues to erode lingering inhibition. Deep-layer shear over the region is only marginally supportive of organized convection with 0-6 km bulk shear values between 25-30 knots. However, the increasing instability atop a well-mixed boundary layer (featuring 0-3 km lapse rates near 9 C/km) will support the potential for a few strong downdrafts that could produce damaging wind gusts. Isolated instances of marginally severe hail are also possible with any stronger updraft pulses, but the overall severe threat is expected to be fairly isolated across north/northwest NM and far southeast CO. A more organized severe threat is expected to evolve in the mid to late afternoon hours across eastern NM and into the OK/TX Panhandles as the developing convection grows upscale. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35840321 35130402 34360451 33410481 32940520 33040586 33570662 33630746 33620789 33870833 34770838 35520819 36340784 36630664 37060559 37330520 37590470 37670356 37600298 36970254 36240268 35840321 NNNN