ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061945 
SPC MCD 061945 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

Areas affected...Far Southeast MO/MO Bootheel...Far Western
KY...Western TN...Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152...

Valid 061945Z - 062115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated hail and damaging wind gusts continues
across much of the region.

DISCUSSION...Updrafts within the much of the convective cluster
moving across the Mid MS Valley have recently shown a deepening
trend. Some modest increase in forward progression is also occurring
with this portion of the line, with storm motion now around 35-40
kt. Given this speed, the more southward moving portion (along the
far southern edge of this cluster) will likely move outside the
current watch around 20Z. In contrast to the rest of the cluster,
this portion has been weakening over the past half hour, suggesting
the severe threat may not extend past the edge of the watch. A more
easterly motion is anticipated with the rest of the cluster, bring
it to the edge of the watch in TN closer to 21Z. 

A narrow corridor of better low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
the mid 40s) only extends through western TN, with dewpoints still
in the upper 30s across much of middle TN. This may limit the
intensity as the cluster moves east into more of middle TN late this
afternoon and evening. However, the environment where the cluster
currently resides is supportive of strong to severe storms capable
of isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 05/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   37188959 37038897 36158841 35518883 35049033 35369117
            36149085 37188959 

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