ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061452 
SPC MCD 061452 
ILZ000-MOZ000-061615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast MO....West-Central/Southwest
IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061452Z - 061615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gust and/or an instance of large
hail is possible over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over north-central
IL, with cold front extending southwestward from this low through
central and southwest MO. A subtle pre-frontal trough precedes the
cold front. Attempts at deeper convection have been noted over the
past half hour or so along both of these boundaries, although no
well developed updrafts have materialized thus far. This trend of
somewhat sporadic and short-lived deep updrafts will likely persist
for the next hour or two, fostered by modest buoyant attendant to
the cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates. Limited
duration of the strong updrafts should temper the severe potential
enough to preclude watch issuance until farther southeast later this
afternoon. Even so, an isolated damaging wind gusts and/or instance
of large hail is possible for a few hours.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38449228 39549070 39278935 37998919 37099041 37529239
            38449228 

NNNN