ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052047 
SPC MCD 052047 
NEZ000-KSZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052047Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or a damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out with one of the stronger storms. A WW issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...High-based, low-topped convection continues to
intensify ahead of a slowly east-southeastward advancing cold front
across portions of the Central Plains per latest MRMS mosaic radar
imagery. Immediately along the front, latest Mesoanalysis depicts up
to 500 J/kg MLCAPE driven primarily by ample insolation, mid 40s
surface dewpoints, and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates advected
eastward by modest mid-level flow. One of the stronger storms may
briefly support a couple instances of severe hail, though hail is
expected to remain small overall given the very skinny CAPE vertical
profiles. A damaging gust also cannot be ruled out given the
relatively dry boundary layer, as also inferred by near 20F
temperature/dewpoint depressions via the latest METAR observations.

The severe threat area should be confined to a limited area east of
the front given overall scant low-level moisture and slow eastward
advection of the steeper lapse rates. The locally confined, brief
nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39089897 39479916 40029890 40799836 41789785 42029771
            42149718 41979669 41599641 41489639 41049625 39989655
            39319756 39139847 39089897 

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