ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051929 
SPC MCD 051929 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas...extreme southeast
Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051929Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected through the
afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a surface cold
front across western Kansas into eastern Colorado, just south of a
CBK-GLD-ITR line, and is gradually propagating southeast. Convection
will continue to gradually deepen and intensify with continued
strong diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing.
Deep-layer steep lapse rates are in place, with the latest RAP PFCs
suggesting boundary-layer mixing past 700 mb. 8-9 C/km lapse rates
are present within the lowest 2 km, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km lapse
rates in the mid levels. Relatively stronger flow aloft (i.e. 50+
kts) is contained roughly above 500 mb. Still, the presence of a
deep, dry sub-cloud layer will promote enough evaporative cooling
for efficient downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow with
any of the stronger storm cores that can develop. A brief instance
or two marginally severe hail is also possible given the steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain brief and
sparse overall. A WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36470180 36890216 37340219 37830203 38290181 38510147
            38720086 38650036 38450003 37959977 37389973 36889982
            36639999 36500021 36470180 

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