ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042152 
SPC MCD 042152 
VAZ000-NCZ000-042245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia and extreme northern North
Carolina.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...

Valid 042152Z - 042245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms have become increasingly organized
over the last half hour suggesting an increased potential for severe
weather. WW148 may need to be locally extended.

DISCUSSION...2130z radar shows some consolidation of updrafts and a
merging of outflow with ongoing storms to the north occurring with
the scattered convection along and west of the I-95 corridor through
southern Virginia. Hi-res model guidance and observation trends
suggest this will likely continue as storms move into an
increasingly unstable and moderately sheared environment. A local
maximum (1500-2000 J/kg) of MLCAPE near the eastern coast will
likely continue to support robust updraft development over the next
1 to 2 hours. Storm organization in the form of clusters and short
line segments from 20-30 kts of effective shear will continue to
pose a risk for damaging wind gusts before storms move offshore
around 23-00z. A local extension of WW148 southward may be needed to
cover the evolving severe threat.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

LAT...LON   36467592 36447649 36457715 36507741 36597764 36967764
            37247749 37407724 37537691 37367623 37097584 36847575
            36597574 36467592 

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