ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 040252 
SPC MCD 040252 
TXZ000-040345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of north-central into central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

Valid 040252Z - 040345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe risks are transitioning to scattered
damaging winds and isolated large hail this evening. Either an
extension in area to WW 134 or a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be needed before the scheduled 04Z expiration of WW 133.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently grown upscale into a broken line
in north-central TX along a composite cold front/dryline. Strong
outbound velocities have been observed in/near Ellis County TX from
KFWS. Given the increasingly linear nature to most of the convection
across this region, scattered severe/damaging wind gusts should
become the primary concern in the short term. But, isolated large
hail and perhaps a brief tornado may still occur with any embedded
supercells. Around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE remains present
downstream of ongoing convection, along with strong deep-layer
shear. Even with the loss of daytime heating, this favorable
environment will likely allow for a continued severe wind/hail
threat to persist beyond the scheduled 04Z expiration of WW 133.
Either a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch or extension in area of WW
134 to the east will likely be needed.

..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   31119807 31959748 32869653 33269599 33229578 33009570
            32129556 31629571 30919661 30729714 31119807 

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