ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032319 
SPC MCD 032319 
TXZ000-040115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northwest into central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 032319Z - 040115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail threat will likely continue this evening as
storms move eastward. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple severe supercells across west TX are expected
to move eastward this evening into parts of northwest/central TX.
This activity will remain to the north of a surface front, but
surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to low 60s behind the
front. 45-50 kt of deep-layer shear will likely continue to support
supercell structures, and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
rates and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg suggest large hail should remain
the primary severe concern. Very large hail to 2+ inches in diameter
also appears possible given the favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment, as well as the robust structure of the
ongoing supercells. Even with the frontal passage, isolated damaging
winds may also occur since low-level lapse rates remain steep with
clouds clearing and diurnal heating that has occurred earlier this
afternoon. Given the expectation for multiple supercells to move
eastward this evening and pose a continued large to perhaps very
large hail threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32120060 33380043 33399800 32609818 32099897 32120060 

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