ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032256 
SPC MCD 032256 
TXZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...South central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032256Z - 040030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development possible through about
7pm CDT, but uncertainty remains high.  If storms form, the storm
environment conditionally favors supercells capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus and a couple of orphan anvils have
been noted from 2230-2250z in visible imagery from La Salle
northward into Medina County in south central TX.  These updrafts
are forming along a weak surface trough/pseudo dryline that should
retreat slowly westward this evening.  Given the very hot surface
temperatures and deep mixing layer along and west of the trough,
there will be at least a low chance of sustained storm development
before the boundary layer begins to stabilize near and after 00z. 
If sustained updrafts can initiate in this zone, the storm
environment is conditionally favorable for supercells given large
CAPE, steep lapse rates, and strong deep-layer vertical shear. 
While a watch is not currently expected given the uncertainty in
sustained storm development, this area will be monitored for a
conditional large hail/damaging wind threat for a few hours this
evening.

..Thompson.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28709894 28209898 28009910 28069928 28639932 29169927
            29469910 29499891 29309893 28709894 

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